Pet Industry Expresses Concern Over USMCA Renewal Uncertainty
The United States has opted against extending the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for an additional 16-year period beyond its scheduled expiration in July 2036. Although the free trade pact, which underpins commercial relations among the three nations, is set to continue for another decade absent any member's withdrawal, this decision initiates an annual joint review process. This yearly evaluation will persist until either an extension is formalized or the agreement lapses on July 1, 2036. US trade representative Jameson Greer indicated ongoing discussions with Mexico and Canada to address perceived shortcomings and trade imbalances within the region. The USMCA, which came into effect on July 1, 2020, superseded the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and modernized trade regulations, notably by strengthening currency manipulation disciplines and reforming food and agricultural trade, all while largely preserving tariff-free and non-tariff-free trade.
Industry groups have voiced significant apprehension regarding this development. The American Feed Industry Association (AFIA) expressed dismay, highlighting the USMCA's role as a cornerstone for growth and stability within the animal feed and pet food sectors. They contend that despite its imperfections, the agreement should not be allowed to expire in the coming decade. The AFIA further stressed that while bilateral agreements might tackle specific issues, they cannot fully replicate the efficiencies offered by a unified North American market. Constance Cullman, President and CEO of AFIA, emphasized that continuous annual reviews until 2036 would undermine the predictability essential for businesses to invest and compete effectively. Similarly, the Pet Food Institute (PFI), along with 160 other agricultural organizations, had advocated for the agreement's renewal, underscoring its importance in fostering stability, predictability, and science-based market access in Mexico and Canada for US producers. They noted that the agreement has been instrumental in enabling pet food manufacturers to confidently invest, export, and operate across the integrated North American market. In 2025, Canada and Mexico collectively accounted for nearly 60% of US pet food exports, solidifying North America as a vital hub for this trade.
The USMCA's most significant advantage for the pet food industry has been tariff-free trade among the three countries, which has enabled manufacturers to maintain competitiveness and avoid cost increases that might otherwise be passed on to consumers. Should the agreement not be extended, the immediate fallout is expected to be heightened trade uncertainty, which could introduce inefficiencies for American pet food exporters reliant on stable trade regulations to manage supply chains and uphold long-term contracts and business relationships effectively.
In an increasingly interconnected global economy, the stability of international trade agreements is paramount for fostering sustained economic growth and innovation. The pet industry's concerns underscore the ripple effects that policy shifts can have on diverse sectors, highlighting the critical need for clear, long-term trade frameworks. Ensuring predictable market conditions not only supports existing businesses but also encourages future investments, ultimately benefiting consumers through competitive pricing and product availability. A commitment to resolving trade uncertainties through constructive dialogue and renewed agreements can pave the way for continued prosperity and strengthen collaborative international relations.